Abstract as per original application
(English/Chinese): |
International financial centres now play a substantial economic role in the countries and cities that host them. Understanding how financial centres form is important for assessing the advantages of existing centres and for designing policies to maintain their status. The emergence of financial centres depends on economic fundamentals (Wójcik et al., 2017), historical legacies (Cassis, 2006), and deliberate policy choices (Schenk, 2020). However, only a few candidate cities ultimately become major financial centres, and little is known about how large global shocks influence their rise.
To answer the question, this project examines how the increase in foreign‑currency volatility following Nixon’s suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold affected foreign banks’ decisions to find correspondent banks that help foreign banks conduct business in Hong Kong. In the 1960s, Hong Kong already had an open and active foreign‑exchange market. The pre‑existing strengths may have attracted international banks after the shift to floating exchange rates.
I will estimate the effect of post‑1971 exchange rate volatility on the number of correspondent banking relationships between foreign banks and Hong Kong banks using a difference‑in‑differences (DID) design. This project aims to assemble a bank-level panel dataset of about 4,000 international banks covering the period from 1965 to 1978, when foreign banks relied on correspondent banks to access Hong Kong’s financial market due to restrictions on new bank licences.
The main explanatory variable is a shift-share variable that combines pre-1971 trade shares with trading partners’ currency volatility against the U.S. dollar after 1971. It captures how exposed different countries were to the risks of floating exchange rates following Nixon’s decision based on their historical trade patterns.
Building on the baseline estimates, I will test several mechanisms. The first mechanism is that individual foreign banks might choose Hong Kong banks that had a presence in their countries as bridges to access Hong Kong. The second is geography, as countries farther from contemporary major financial centres, London and New York, may have been more likely to link to Hong Kong. The third is legal origin, because banks from Common Law jurisdictions may have faced lower entry barriers. Finally, I will construct a network database of banks to examine Hong Kong’s centrality in the international banking network in the 1960s and 1970s.
如今，國際金融中心對所在國家和城市具有重大的經濟影響，理解金融中心的形成對於評估既有中心的優勢以及制定政策以維持其地位均至關重要。金融中心的興起取決於經濟基礎因素（Wójcik 等，2017）、歷史遺產（Cassis，2006）以及審慎的政策選擇（Schenk，2020）。然而，只有少數具備條件的候選城市最終能成為主要金融中心，而且目前學界對於大型全球衝擊如何影響其崛起所知甚少。
為回答此問題，本研究探討尼克松暫停美元兌換黃金之後，外幣波動性增加，如何影響外國銀行尋找代理銀行（correspondent banks）以協助其在香港開展業務的決策。在 1960 年代，香港已擁有開放且活躍的外匯市場，這種既有的優勢可能在匯率轉向浮動制後吸引了國際銀行。
我將採用雙重差分法（difference‑in‑differences，DID），估計 1971 年後匯率波動性對外國銀行與香港銀行之間代理銀行關係數量的影響。本研究旨在建立一個銀行層級的追蹤資料集，涵蓋約 4,000 家國際銀行，時間範圍為 1965 年至 1978 年，此期間因新銀行牌照受限，外國銀行須依賴代理銀行才能進入香港金融市場。
主要解釋變量為一個移動-份額變量，這一變量綜合了一個經濟體在 1971 年之前與各貿易夥伴的貿易份額，以及 1971 年後各貿易夥伴貨幣對美元的匯率波動性。該變量捕捉了不同國家因歷史貿易結構，而在尼克松決策後所暴露於浮動匯率風險的程度。
在基礎估計之上，我將檢驗幾項機制。第一項機制是，外國銀行可能選擇那些已在該國設有據點的香港銀行，作為進入香港的橋樑。第二項是地理因素，因為距離當時主要國際金融中心（倫敦和紐約）較遠的國家，可能更傾向於與香港建立聯繫。第三項是法律淵源，因為普通法管轄區的銀行可能面臨較低的進入障礙。最後，我將建構一個銀行網絡資料庫，以檢視香港在 1960 及 1970 年代國際銀行網絡中的中心性。
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